The Art of Thinking Clearly

A summary of Rolf Dobelli's insights on cognitive biases and decision-making

Chapter 1: Why You Should Visit Cemeteries

Survivorship Bias: People overestimate their chances of success because they only see survivors. Visiting the graves of failed projects, investments, and careers can help provide perspective.

Chapter 2: Does Harvard Make You Smarter?

Swimmer Body Illusion: Harvard doesn't make people smarter, it selects smart people. Just as swimmers are selected for their body type, not shaped by swimming.

Chapter 3: Why You See Shapes in the Clouds

Clustering Illusion: Our brain tries to create patterns out of randomness. Use statistical tools to verify patterns in data, especially in markets.

Chapter 4: If Fifty Million People Say Something Foolish, It Is Still Foolish

Social Proof: Just because others are doing something doesn't mean you should too, especially when making personal decisions.

Chapter 5: Why You Should Forget About The Past

Sunk Cost Fallacy: Decisions should be based on future benefits, not past investments. Ignore sunk costs and focus on what lies ahead.

Chapter 11: Why We Prefer a Wrong Map to None at All

Availability Bias: We make decisions based on easily available information. Consult others to overcome this bias and seek different perspectives.

Chapter 12: Why “No Pain, No Gain” Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing

It's Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy: If no improvement is seen after a reasonable period, reassess the approach.

Chapter 13: Even True Stories Are Fairytales

Story Bias: We shape events into stories to create meaning, which often distorts reality and clouds our judgment.

Chapter 18: Don’t Pay the Lawyers by the Hour

Incentive Super-Response Tendency: Align incentives with outcomes to avoid inefficiency and inflated costs.

Chapter 19: The Dubious Efficacy of Doctors, Consultants, and Psychotherapists

Regression to the Mean: Natural fluctuations in outcomes are often mistaken for the effect of interventions. Beware of attributing success to actions when it's merely a return to average.

Chapter 20: Never Judge a Decision by Its Outcome

Outcome Bias: Don’t judge decisions based solely on the results. Focus on the quality of the reasoning behind them.

Chapter 21: Less is More

Paradox of Choice: More options lead to less satisfaction. Define clear criteria before exploring your choices.

Chapter 22: You Like Me, You Really, Really Like Me

Liking Bias: The more we like someone, the more inclined we are to trust and follow them, even irrationally.

Chapter 23: Don’t Cling to Things

Endowment Effect: We overvalue what we own. Don’t let this bias affect your decisions.

Chapter 24: The Inevitability of Unlikely Events

Coincidence: Rare events happen more often than we think. Don't overestimate their significance.