Survivorship Bias: People overestimate their chances of success because they only see survivors. Visiting the graves of failed projects, investments, and careers can help provide perspective.
Swimmer Body Illusion: Harvard doesn't make people smarter, it selects smart people. Just as swimmers are selected for their body type, not shaped by swimming.
Clustering Illusion: Our brain tries to create patterns out of randomness. Use statistical tools to verify patterns in data, especially in markets.
Social Proof: Just because others are doing something doesn't mean you should too, especially when making personal decisions.
Sunk Cost Fallacy: Decisions should be based on future benefits, not past investments. Ignore sunk costs and focus on what lies ahead.
Availability Bias: We make decisions based on easily available information. Consult others to overcome this bias and seek different perspectives.
It's Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy: If no improvement is seen after a reasonable period, reassess the approach.
Story Bias: We shape events into stories to create meaning, which often distorts reality and clouds our judgment.
Incentive Super-Response Tendency: Align incentives with outcomes to avoid inefficiency and inflated costs.
Regression to the Mean: Natural fluctuations in outcomes are often mistaken for the effect of interventions. Beware of attributing success to actions when it's merely a return to average.
Outcome Bias: Don’t judge decisions based solely on the results. Focus on the quality of the reasoning behind them.
Paradox of Choice: More options lead to less satisfaction. Define clear criteria before exploring your choices.
Liking Bias: The more we like someone, the more inclined we are to trust and follow them, even irrationally.
Endowment Effect: We overvalue what we own. Don’t let this bias affect your decisions.
Coincidence: Rare events happen more often than we think. Don't overestimate their significance.